By Oscar Obonyo

Zimbabwean Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai’s decision to boycott the unity Government until sticking issues are resolved reads like a script all too familiar to Kenyans.

Tsvangirai’s threats are akin to his Kenyan counterpart Raila Odinga’s, during the nascent stages of the Grand Coalition Government. Tsvangirai and Raila, who maintain their election victories were stolen, are both stuck in a political marriage of convenience. While their separate power-sharing pacts dictate a 50-50 deal, coalition partners, Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe and President Kibaki retain and enjoy the bulk of the power.

University of Nairobi Political Science Lecturer Adams Oloo points out this anomaly as the basis of friction in the Zimbabwe and Kenya.

"There was no way Kibaki and Mugabe were going to share power equally with individuals they perceive forced themselves into their Governments. While Raila finally accepted this fact and opted to quietly negotiate for his space, Tsvangirai seems unable to negotiate from within," observes Oloo.

The apparent denial by Tsvangirai that his Movement for Democratic (MDC) party is practically a junior partner to Mugabe’s Zanu-PF, has impeded harmony in Government.

Tsvangirai’s latest battle is a protest against the arrest of Mr Roy Bennet, a senior MDC official.

"The detention of our party treasurer has brought home the self-evident fact that Zanu-PF sees us as junior, fickle and unserious partners," said Tsvangirai last Friday when he "disengaged from government".

Tsvangirai, who is certain his decision will paralyse operations of the Government, has threatened to pull out from Government altogether if Mugabe does not stop his "dishonest and unreliable ways".

The action of Zimbabwean politician is watched closely by some ODM members, who feel their party leader has endured a lot of dishonour from PNU. While some MPs have openly asked Raila to pull out of Government in protest, political analysts are convinced the PM will stay put.

According to Munene Macharia, professor of History and International Relations at the United States International University, Raila is unlikely to pull out of Government because he has negotiated a better deal compared to Tsvangirai.

"But again this has more to do with the characters and personalities of the individuals in question. Tsvangirai does not appear as forceful as his Kenyan counterpart, let alone the general perception in the eyes of the international community that Raila calls the shots in Kenya," says Munene.

Unlike Kibaki, who seems indifferent in issues of governance, Munene observes that Mugabe has a tighter grip on the events of his government.

Oloo further points out that Mugabe and Tsvangirai have nothing that binds them together as opposed to the Kenyan principals who share a history and good inter-personal relationship. Their foot-soldiers in PNU and ODM might be embroiled in a verbal war", observes Oloo, but "Kibaki and Raila have no choice but work together".

In Kenya’s case, Oloo notes that a number of tasks, including long-term ones, were set up under Agenda Four compelling the two principals to walk through the process together.

"In Zimbabwe’s case, there is no new electoral body or any other that has been set up. It was simply a question of Mugabe and Tsvangirai forming a united Government," he says.

Except for the circumstances under which the coalition governments were set up, following botched presidential elections, the Kenyan situation is quite different from Zimbabwe’s.

Raila, for instance, is paired with a partner who is on his way out of political power after 2012 and who is believably not engaging the PM in dirty battles. On the contrary, politicians in Zimbabwe confess they have no idea if and when Mugabe will exit the political scene. All the moves by the strongman of the Central African nation are accordingly perceived to be geared towards power retention.

Back home, President Kibaki is equally under pressure from members of his PNU brigade to groom one of their own to succeed him. The President, who last year officially assumed the position of party leader during PNU’s national conference, may be involved in the party’s activities, but he is yet to publicly anoint his successor.

In the meantime, Zimbabwe grapples on with a difficult administrative phase same as Kenya’s a year ago, when Kibaki and Raila locked horns over appointments to the Civil Service and diplomatic postings.

"Unlike Raila, Tsvangirai has the MDC numbers solidly behind him and he may just give meaning to his threat. Raila’s party, on the other hand, is leaking slowly and a decision to opt out of Government might not be very prudent for ODM," says Munene.

But Oloo argues that the PM has experienced the folly of fighting the Government from outside and cannot make that mistake this time around.

Observes the expert: "He learnt from his late father, (Kenya’s first Vice-President) Jaramogi (Oginga Odinga) who formed KPU party but the State machinery battled him to near political irrelevance. On the flipside, Raila joined Kanu in 2002 and walked away with the heart of the party days to the General Elections, leaving it virtually dead."